Golden Knights Could Prefer Canadiens Over Hurricanes in Stanley Cup Final – Here’s Why

Posted on Gemthelic.com

The Vegas Golden Knights are heading into the Stanley Cup Final with plenty of confidence after stunning the hockey world by sweeping the Colorado Avalanche in the Western Conference Final. While Vegas waits for the Eastern Conference champion to emerge, the battle between the Carolina Hurricanes and Montreal Canadiens continues to intensify.

Carolina currently leads the series 2-1 heading into Game 4 at Bell Centre, but from Vegas’ perspective, the bigger question is simple: Which opponent offers the more favorable matchup in the Stanley Cup Final?

Betting Odds Favor a Vegas vs Montreal Matchup

Looking strictly at sportsbook projections, oddsmakers clearly believe Montreal would be the easier opponent for Vegas.

In a potential Stanley Cup Final between the Golden Knights and Canadiens, Vegas is listed at:

• Vegas Golden Knights: -137
• Montreal Canadiens: +114

Those odds translate to an implied 57.8% chance for Vegas to win the series.

However, things change dramatically if Carolina advances. Against the Hurricanes, Vegas would actually enter the series as the underdog:

• Carolina Hurricanes: -178
• Vegas Golden Knights: +146

That leaves the Golden Knights with only a 40.7% implied probability of capturing the Cup in that matchup.

Stanley Cup futures tell a similar story. Both Vegas and Carolina sit at +105 to win the championship, while Montreal remains a distant +950 outsider.

From the betting market’s perspective, the Canadiens are clearly viewed as the weakest team remaining.

Regular Season Results Tell a Completely Different Story

Interestingly, the on-ice results during the regular season paint the opposite picture.

Vegas defeated Carolina twice this season but lost both games against Montreal.

The Golden Knights beat the Hurricanes 4-1 on Oct. 20 at T-Mobile Arena before completing a dramatic 6-3 comeback victory in Raleigh just over a week later.

Against Montreal, things didn’t go nearly as smoothly. The Canadiens secured a 4-1 victory in Las Vegas on Nov. 28, then followed it up with a 3-2 overtime win at Bell Centre on Jan. 27 thanks to Jake Evans’ game-winning goal.

Still, those meetings came months ago, and all three teams have evolved significantly since then.

Carolina’s Pressure System Could Create Problems

There’s a reason Carolina is viewed as such a dangerous opponent.

The Hurricanes were arguably the NHL’s strongest puck-possession team during the regular season and have carried that structure into the playoffs. They pressure relentlessly, suppress shots better than almost anyone, and attack in waves rather than relying on one superstar scorer.

While Montreal leans heavily on offensive stars like Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky, Carolina spreads its scoring across the lineup. Seven Hurricanes players scored at least 20 goals during the regular season, making them far less predictable.

Logan Stankoven has also emerged as one of Carolina’s hottest playoff contributors.

Another major factor is Carolina’s tendency to generate offense from the blue line and from long-range shooting areas. The Hurricanes recorded 627 point shots during the regular season, second only to Colorado.

Vegas handled Colorado’s shooting attack extremely well thanks to elite shot blocking and disciplined defensive positioning, but Carolina’s relentless pressure could test the Golden Knights in a completely different way.

Why Montreal Might Be the Better Matchup for Vegas

From a stylistic standpoint, Montreal may actually fit perfectly into the type of opponent Vegas has already dominated throughout this playoff run.

The Canadiens rely heavily on speed, transition offense, and lateral passing through open ice — similar to the styles employed by Utah, Anaheim, and Colorado earlier in the postseason.

Vegas has already proven it can neutralize that formula.

The Golden Knights’ center depth remains one of the biggest advantages in hockey. Jack Eichel continues to dominate both offensively and defensively, while William Karlsson and Mitch Marner help eliminate rush opportunities and limit open space.

That structure allowed Vegas to completely frustrate Colorado superstar Nathan MacKinnon during the conference final.

Montreal also depends heavily on offensive production from defensemen. Canadiens blueliners combined for 213 points during the regular season, second-most in the NHL behind Colorado.

Vegas has already shown it knows how to shut down defense-driven offenses.

Utah’s Mikhail Sergachev struggled badly in Round 1, Anaheim’s Jackson LaCombe managed just one assist in Round 2, and Colorado’s blue line failed to score a single goal during the Western Conference Final sweep.

Goaltending Matchups Could Also Matter

The previous regular-season games featured very different goaltending situations compared to now.

Akira Schmid started those contests for Vegas but has since fallen to third on the depth chart. Carter Hart has yet to face either Carolina or Montreal as a Golden Knight.

Against Carolina in his career, Hart owns:

• Record: 4-6-1
• Save Percentage: .913
• Goals Against Average: 2.93

Against Montreal:

• Record: 2-3-3
• Save Percentage: .900
• Goals Against Average: 3.26

Meanwhile, Frederik Andersen struggled against Vegas this season with an .864 save percentage.

Experience vs Momentum

Montreal may be younger and less experienced overall, but several key players remain from the Canadiens squad that eliminated Vegas in the 2020-21 semifinals.

That group includes Phillip Danault, who gave the Golden Knights major problems in that series.

Still, this current Vegas roster appears far more complete and disciplined than previous versions. Their playoff dominance against Utah, Anaheim, and Colorado suggests this team is capable of adapting to almost any style.

Final Thoughts

The Golden Knights should feel confident regardless of who comes out of the Eastern Conference.

Carolina presents the more balanced and defensively structured challenge, while Montreal appears to be a stylistic matchup Vegas understands extremely well after facing similar teams throughout the postseason.

Oddsmakers strongly favor Vegas against Montreal, and the tactical matchup seems to support that opinion as well.

If the Golden Knights had the choice, the Canadiens might be the opponent they would rather see waiting in the Stanley Cup Final.